Democrats are already in a position of weakness. Polls show the midterms could be an Obamaesque “shellacking” or a George W. Bush “thumping.” History doesn’t give the party in the White House many reasons to celebrate midterm years, and Obama’s gummed-up agenda doesn’t make Democrats’ case much better. The post-Roe world could have given Democrats a unifying moment to rally the base, but by all accounts, the ruling ending five decades of precedent on abortion rights caught the White House by surprise.

For sure, Biden’s loyalists have reason to puff up their chest and declare victory. No one could have credibly predicted a septuagenarian who finished fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire would clinch the Democratic nomination faster than anyone since 2004. Or be the first candidate since 1992 to defeat an incumbent President. Or then build—and this is not hyperbole—the most diverse governing team in history. The confirmation of the first Black woman to the Supreme Court is also nothing to sneeze at, especially when strategists are looking at how to design their Souls to the Polls GOTV programs targeting Black churches.

Still, there is a sense of dread among Democrats about Biden. He seems to be missing moments. Those around him are making errors: Kamala Harris in the Chicago suburbs delivering a word salad of empathy; Dr. Jill Biden saying Latinos are as diverse as tacos; a Cabinet that seems eager to move up the chain even as the boss says he’s not leaving.