The filibuster is on a slippery slope

Many Democrats already believe Republicans would target the legislative filibuster, which is why they wanted to go first this year. Democrats have only been foiled because two of their own broke ranks.

And, of course, if Republicans captured control of the White House and Congress, Democrats would rediscover their affection for the filibuster. They ably wielded filibuster power during the George W. Bush and Donald Trump presidencies, constraining the Republicans’ legislative output. And the filibuster would come in handy when resisting any future attempt at a national abortion ban.

But at this point, the only way Democrats will have filibuster power is if enough Senate Republicans let them keep it.

In 2018, then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell rebuffed President Trump’s demands for filibuster abolition, and this year insisted he would “never support smashing the filibuster.” Whether or not you take McConnell at his word, what’s certainly true is McConnell can’t live forever. Whoever succeeds him would probably not make such a definitive pledge. If a future Republican Senate majority leader ever moved to junk the filibuster, the only way it could still survive is if a group of rogue Republicans emulated Manchin and Sinema and denied their leadership a simple majority.