FiveThirtyEight argues that even if Democrats hold all their current seats and win all the toss-up races, it will not be enough to hand them the majority. A Democratic victory in the House appears to require a major shakeup in the dynamics of the midterm elections.
That is possible—especially given likely ongoing controversy over abortion laws and investigations into the role some Republicans played in efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
The election could throw up a so-called “October surprise” that changes the course of the race in Democrats’ favor, but right now that seems a distant prospect.
It also seems unlikely that neither chamber will change hands. The last time that happened was in 1998, when Republicans held both the House and Senate despite modest Democratic gains in the House and some changes in the composition of the Senate.
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