Sean Freeder, an assistant professor of political science at the University of North Florida, suggested that out of more than 450 congressional elections, only around six to 10 Senate races and 30-40 congressional House seats are competitive.
While Freeder expects the GOP to easily regain control of the House, it may be more difficult for the party to take the Senate because of what he calls “a slate of weak Republican candidates” such as Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Herschel Walker in Georgia, and hopefuls in Arizona and Wisconsin.
“It will ultimately come down to framing by each party. Democrats want this election to be a referendum on Trump and the Dobbs decision. Republicans want this election to be a referendum on Biden and the economy,” Freeder told Newsweek.
“Best case scenario for Republicans: Young and/or leftist voters, disillusioned, stay home, and independents focus on inflation and the concern of a looming recession. Republicans sweep the winnable Senate seats, giving them 54-46 control of the Senate, and a 40 seat advantage in the House.
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