If California were its own sovereign nation, it would be economically competitive with Germany, a nation with more than twice its population. Newsom can argue that he’s already leading 12 percent of America’s people, and nearly 15 percent of its economy. He can argue that on his watch, California has managed to keep its economy hot without jettisoning its extensive, cumbersome environmental regulations.

That is, Newsom can pitch himself not as a compromise for Democrats but as the full package, someone building a green, progressive, diverse, and rich future — a future that Democrats desperately want for the whole country.

Newsom also has a kind of charisma that is hard to describe to conservatives who are genuinely repulsed by him but that generates a response from important blocs of voters. While it seems like Latino voters around the country are beginning to shift toward Republicans, in California they are becoming more attached to Newsom. One study showed that Biden won the state’s Latino voters by a three-to-one margin in 2020. But, in the recall election, Newsom won L.A.’s Latino voters by something closer to a four-to-one margin.