Persistent inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s campaign to rein it in, are conspiring to tip the economy into a downturn — one that even Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges could metastasize into a recession.

Wall Street, Main Street and Washington all have differing opinions about the likelihood of a recession and how deep it’s likely to be if it happens.

Wall Street economists have been gradually hiking their recession forecasts. Their estimates now put the likelihood of a recession somewhere between 30% and 50% — or, as veteran market analyst Peter Boockvar opined last week – a staggering 99%.

Between the lines: All the chatter about a slowdown is creating what could best be summed up in the lyrics of a 1987 hit by soul singer Keith Sweat: Something just isn’t right, and consumers have a gut feeling it’s not, even if jobs and spending remain robust.