If both run, the conundrum for DeSantis is making the case why Trump shouldn’t be president again. Pre-COVID-19, there is little to substantively critique the actual Trump record on, without dwelling on mean tweets and other shallow matters. It’s also a near certainty that DeSantis—an ambitious but somewhat obscure Florida congressman in 2018—would not be governor today if Trump had not endorsed him in a GOP primary.

Moreover, without the three Trump-appointed justices to the U.S. Supreme Court, Roe v. Wade would not have been overturned. While many conservatives didn’t trust him as the nominee in 2016, the Trump campaign released a list of potential high court justices that eased concerns on the right. Reversing one of the worst court rulings in American history is no small accomplishment and something that Trump can tout. While it seems likely any Republican president would have appointed originalists judges, the fact is that Trump did, and gets the credit with the outcomes. The right place at the right time is how history works.

I and others have noted that when Hillary Clinton seemed destined to be the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee, upstart Barack Obama shocked the political world by beating her. Obama was a favorite of the party base that was sort of ready to move on from the Clintons. There are big similarities with a potential DeSantis contest with Trump. A major difference is that Obama had Hillary’s Iraq war vote to pummel her with throughout the primary campaign.

There is not yet a parallel emotional issue to drive conservative voters to be mad at Trump over.