Putin's only strategy is self-destruction in Ukraine

These weapons—and especially U.S. lend-lease weaponry—should tilt the balance in favor of the Ukrainians. After all, Ukraine isn’t losing, but neither can it defeat the Russians with its current capabilities. Once the weapons arrive in significant numbers, it’s perfectly possible for Ukraine to push back the Russians from the territories seized after the start of the war on February 24.

To be sure, the planned Ukrainian counter-offensive, which is slated to start sometime in the late summer, will be no cakewalk. Casualties on both sides will be high. More civilians will die as part of Putin’s genocide. But the Ukrainians are likely to prevail in general and especially where it counts most.

And it counts most in the southern provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya, which sit atop the Crimea and form an integral part of the coveted Russian land bridge to the occupied peninsula. Even with very minimal numbers of Western weapons, the Ukrainian armed forces have currently managed to overcome two lines of defense around Kherson and are now within sight of the city. If they capture the city before the general counter-offensive, they will be able to cut off water to the Crimea, destroy the land bridge, and be within range of striking the Black Sea fleet parked in Sevastopol. Losing Kherson would be a major strategic loss for Russia; gaining Luhansk or even Donetsk provinces would only tickle Putin’s need for self-affirmation as the great in-gatherer of lands.