Then there’s the question of who would serve as an alternative to McCarthy. It’s a political truism that you can’t beat someone with no one. House Republican Whip Steve Scalise (La.) isn’t especially close to Trump, and he was also taped shortly after the Jan. 6 riot suggesting that the party ought to move on from Trump. The third-highest ranking House Republican, Elise Stefanik (N.Y.), is a Trump favorite, but her relatively moderate record means she likely couldn’t garner majority support. Rep. Jim Jordan (Ohio), a Trump defender and former head of the House Freedom Caucus, remains too extreme for the median member. Plus, Jordan — who supports McCarthy — will also likely face resistance from those who note that many of the candidates he and the Freedom Caucus’s political arm have endorsed in primaries this year have lost.
The idea that Trump himself would want or take the job is laughable. The primary job of the speaker is to set the House’s daily legislative agenda and negotiate the details of bills. No one in his circle would seriously contend that detailed involvement in legislation is something Trump is remotely interested in. Besides, the speaker exists at the pleasure of the House and its majority. Trump would never place himself at the mercy of politicians, many of whom he knows privately loathe him even as they publicly sing his praises.
There’s only one scenario in which Trump’s anger could tip the scales against McCarthy: If Republicans massively underperform in November.
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