Which brings us at last to “But Buttigieg!” Yes, I know, Buttigieg. Mayor Pete lost the Democratic party nomination in 2020. But remember, that was after he won Iowa, tied to win New Hampshire, and finished third in Nevada. This is an exceptionally strong performance for the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana (population 100,000)—a performance that Rudy Giuliani, running as “America’s mayor” before being unceremoniously ushered to the cable news circuit, could only have dreamed of matching in 2008. Among Buttigieg’s problems was his inability to win over black voters, something that mayors of large cities have necessarily proven effective at doing. But his solid showing given the odds stacked against his campaign seems to support my argument; the iron is hot for striking.
Where does this leave 2024 sans Biden? It is anyone’s guess which mayors might make the leap. A group of political scientists examined the political careers of mayors of 196 cities, and only 15 percent ran for a higher office, with just 5 percent ultimately winning one. The authors found that mayors are most attracted to nongovernmental jobs after their tenures, and the few who do seek higher office find being a U.S. senator or governor most appealing. But it’s also true that four current or recent mayors ran in the 2020 Democratic presidential election—Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Bill de Blasio, and Wayne Messam (not to mention the former mayor of Burlington, Vermont, Bernie Sanders). There is no reason to think a wide-open 2024 field would not have several mayor candidates, too—and that one of them could be a breakout star.
A few figures to keep an eye on: Mitch Landrieu, a former two-term mayor of New Orleans, navigated a racially diverse city in a time of turmoil in pro-democracy and principled ways that could resonate widely given our present political moment. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti’s name was floated during the 2020 cycle. Recently elected New York City Mayor Eric Adams is also a possibility, especially given his law enforcement background and his moderate position on a range of issues that upsets party progressives but may be helpful in building a nationally viable electoral coalition.
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