Will Dobbs matter in November?

Scenario D: Blue city, red state: This is the possibly interesting case. Blue cities in red states are some of the nicest places in the country to live: Austin, Salt Lake City, etc. The Democrats who live in them feel a little like Republican college professors—as though they are operating in occupied territory. (I know that Republican college professors think this way because I have heard so from both of them.) They get excited, write checks, etc.—they are the only reason anybody has ever heard of Robert Francis O’Rourke. Red-state Republican incumbents or Republican contenders in districts that have a substantial piece of some of the bluer cities or suburbs might actually have to think about how they are going to talk about this issue a little bit. That might conceivably matter in races such as Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, which includes a big piece of Cincinnati (where Democrats swept eight of nine city council seats in 2021), a seat currently held by Steve Chabot (R.). That race currently is rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, which gives the district a Partisan Voting Index of D+2. Chabot, a longtime incumbent, won only 51.8 percent of the vote in 2020. Some of the other Cook toss-ups are similar, e.g., Cassy Garcia will need some help from exurban San Antonio and the Democrat-leaning city of Laredo in her bid to unseat incumbent Henry Cuellar in Texas’s 28th (D+5).