But I think being upset that Kavanaugh was siding with conservatives on babies and guns is not the most likely motivation here.

In addition to mentioning the leaked Dobbs draft opinion, the FBI’s affidavit states that “ROSKE indicated that he believed the Justice that he intended to kill would side with Second Amendment decisions that would loosen gun control laws. ROSKE stated that he began thinking about how to give his life a purpose and decided that he would kill the Supreme Court Justice.”

So Roske was considering future gun cases. And there’s no reason to believe Roske saw Dobbs in the rearview mirror either — as something to be simply “upset” about, like a blown call by an umpire in last Sunday’s game. A draft of the Dobbs opinion had been leaked, but the decision had not (and still has not) been issued. There could be a 5-to-4 vote to strike down Roe. The most reasonable assumption, then, is not that Roske was venting anger about past events or court decisions but that he was trying to change the outcome of future decisions, including Dobbs. By killing Kavanaugh, he hoped to render the vote 4 to 4, thus saving Roe v. Wade.