Another challenge for Ukraine is the geometry of its current defences in the Donbas. Russian attacks to the north and south have created a horseshoe of territory still held by the Ukrainian army. After massacres of civilians by the Russian army in Bucha and elsewhere, withdrawal has become politically challenging for the Ukrainian government.
But, ringed by Russian firing positions, it is exceedingly difficult for Ukraine to build up a competitive “fires capability” in the area, even if it had the guns to deploy. Russia appears to be using Sievierodonetsk as Germany used Verdun in the first world war: a point where Russia has firepower superiority but from which Ukraine cannot pull back, ensuring high and sustained Ukrainian casualties.
There are several routes to ending these unfavourable conditions. If the Donbas falls to Russia, the return to a linear front may significantly reduce Russia’s artillery advantage, and if Russia then pushes into Ukrainian territory, the battlefield geometry may be reversed, as occurred north of Kyiv in the early stages of the war.
Another shift from the current attritional dynamic may be caused by the provision of large numbers of long-range western artillery pieces. These, coupled with robust “kill chains”, may allow the Ukrainians to begin to destroy Russian artillery with impunity. Then Ukraine could concentrate its units and begin to press Russia’s inferior infantry hard.
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