The fear is not so much that Trump’s direct injection into the midterm campaign turns Biden into a popular president and makes 2022 a Democratic year. Rather, Republicans are concerned the 45th president’s early candidacy would dilute Republican messaging focused on Biden and boost moribund Democratic enthusiasm, shrinking the size of the red wave in a manner that tempers GOP gains in the House and Senate.
“Trump being front and center could affect GOP gains in the House by five seats or so,” said Jeff Burton, a Republican strategist in Austin, Texas. “But it could really affect the Senate, which could end up 50/50 again based on how the seats are looking.”
“Anything, and I mean anything, that takes the focus off the miserable job Joe Biden is doing is bad for Republicans,” added Josh Holmes, former chief of staff to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and co-host of Ruthless, a podcast popular among conservatives…
“The problem is that all Republican candidates would suddenly have to answer a new question — and they’d all prefer to only be talking about Joe Biden,” this strategist added. “We need an election that’s a pure plebiscite on Biden’s job approval, an election in which the conversation is about Biden and Biden alone.”
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