Could House Democrats lose 70 seats this fall?

Now, before you sign on to Gingrich’s 70-seat prediction, it’s worth considering that:

a) The past two national redistricting processes (in 2011 and 2021) have, broadly speaking, created more safe districts that are virtually certain to elect a member of one party.

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b) The 2020 election, in which Republicans netted 12 House seats, likely limits the ceiling of GOP gains since some of the lower-hanging fruit has already been, um, picked.

To be very clear here: A 70-seat Republican gain in the fall still feels more like a Gingrich fever dream than a fact-based possibility. But as Gallup concludes: “The current Democratic congressional majority is facing an extremely unfavorable election environment.”

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