Why it could be a long time before gas prices come down

It’s unclear when gas prices will fall, but the global factors pushing up crude prices are unlikely to ease anytime soon. Analysts at JPMorgan estimate that prices could surge another 37% by August, hitting $6.20 per gallon on average.

The war in Ukraine—and subsequent restrictions on Russian oil—is showing little sign of being resolved. And U.S. refineries are yet to ramp up output as they weigh the costs of expansion with shareholder pressure. A sign of hope, experts say, is that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has agreed to modestly increase production in July and August, with Biden visiting oil-rich nations next month to foster a better relationship with leaders in the Middle East. But a handful of member countries have been producing well below their current allotments.

“These aren’t super quick fixes,” Fell says. “Getting more oil refined and into gas stations is a much longer process that won’t provide relief until maybe several months.”