Four things are going wrong simultaneously for fossil-fuel purchasers. First are sanctions on Russia, the world’s third-largest oil producer. So far, sanctions have slightly reduced Russian oil sales, but Europe is phasing in an embargo, with plans to cut Russian oil purchases 90% by the end of the year. Russia will probably be able to sell some of that oil elsewhere, but exports will probably decline, reducing world supply and pushing prices upward. Since oil prices are set in a global market, no nation can insulate itself from the effect falling supply or rising demand has on prices.

China seems to be emerging from extreme COVID lockdowns that depressed economic activity, including energy consumption. As China’s economy picks back up, energy use will rise, putting upward pressure on prices. There was some hope a new deal with Iran over its nuclear weapons program would lead to the end of U.S. sanctions and more Iranian oil on the global market. But Iran seems to have scuttled negotiations, making a deal unlikely. Finally, President Biden and other leaders have already released large amounts of oil from national reserves, leaving little room for further releases.

Raoul LeBlanc, vice president of the energy practice at S&P Global, calls these four factors a “nightmare bull scenario” that could push oil prices higher still, enriching oil sellers while hammering purchasers.