Let’s get to the bottom of the data. Those on both the left and the right who see the changes as transformational are right to trust established survey firms with sound survey methods. The questionnaire that Gallup fielded, for instance, reached more than 12,000 Americans. Other surveys used in my report find similar or higher levels of non-heterosexual identity among young people. Given this powerful evidence, and the fact that attitudes crystallized in young adulthood often endure for life, how can these changes be anything other than transformational — portending a less “heteronormative,” more liberal, America?

First, the rise in LGBTQ sexual behavior is considerably less dramatic than the rise in non-heterosexual identity. In the General Social Survey, which has asked about both since 2008, the rise in same-sex behavior among the under-30s since 2008 is around four points whereas the rise in LGBTQ identity is eleven points. The four-point rise in behavior is actually even lower because it ignores the 20 percent of young people with no sexual partners.

The fastest growth category has been bisexuality, especially among women. Yet the divergence between LGBT behavior and identity helps explain why the share of bisexual women who report having only male sexual partners in the previous five years rose from around 20 percent during 2008–12 to nearly 60 percent in 2021. Scholars distinguish between those with incidental same-sex attraction and those with persistent and strong attraction. The data suggest that much of the rise in LGBTQ identity among young people has, as Maher suggested, taken place among those with conventional sexual behavior who have incidental rather than persistent same-sex attraction.