This presupposes, however, that whoever comes after Putin would be more reasonable, less paranoid about Russia’s place in the world, remotely interested in democracy or the rule of law. But there is no reason to believe that this would be the case.

According to the Russian constitution, if Putin dies, the prime minister Mikhail Mishustin should take over as acting president, followed by a new election within three months. But Mishustin is a low-profile technocrat with little previous political experience, and while it is possible that his mediocrity could be seen as a selling point by some among the regime elite, who might view him as a loyal frontman who would do as he was told (as Putin was similarly viewed by his early backers), he is unlikely to be a serious candidate.

In fact, there is every possibility that Putin’s successor will be even more autocratic than he is. Leading contenders from within his inner circle would likely include the security council secretary Nikolai Patrushev, who scholar Mark Galeotti has described as a “hawk’s hawk” and “the most dangerous man in Russia” for his hard-line nationalist, anti-Western views; and Alexander Bortnikov, the head of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), one of the successor agencies of the KGB. In other words, the death of Putin isn’t likely to solve any of the West’s problems with Russia.