The "when will it end?" wave

Meanwhile, reported cases are continuing to climb in other regions, namely the South and Southwest. That raises the uncomfortable, frustrating possibility that we’ll be stuck in this wave for quite some time. But then again, even that is hard to know right now, especially as our view of basic pandemic numbers is so murky. “What makes it difficult to understand how a new wave might play out is that we’re still struggling to understand what the size of our susceptible population is, how many people have truly been infected, and how quickly immunity wanes from both vaccination and prior infection,” Gerald said. Eventually, as we learn more about this virus, we might get better at predicting its next turn. But for now, “there’s also going to be weirdo surges that happen whenever they happen,” Eisenberg added.

There’s no sugarcoating it: The “When will it end?” wave is frustrating. We’re entering our third pandemic summer, and yet again cases are high enough that activities such as indoor dining and weddings can come with a real fear of getting sick. But that pattern of slow and steady spread has benefits as well. It’s exactly what we need to prevent our health-care system from getting overwhelmed—with all the side effects of delayed procedures and hospital burnout that comes along with that. Some 25,000 Americans are currently hospitalized with COVID, compared with more than 150,000 at the height of Omicron. There’s a reason “flatten the curve” became an early pandemic slogan—by drawing out infections, we’re helping to ensure that hospitals have space for us when we need it, whether that’s for COVID or any other reason.

But we shouldn’t get too comfortable. This winter could be bad once again—the Biden administration predicts that we’ll see 100 million new cases during the fall and winter, and a new variant could still worsen that outlook. Such a dire situation is not inevitable, though. If anything, the “When will it end?” wave is a reminder that dramatic, all-consuming surges are not necessarily our destiny.