I think Musk agreed to buy Twitter in a dramatically different market environment than we’re in today. Tesla has lost $400 billion in market capitalization. And the value of Twitter is significantly lower today, in the market’s eyes, than when the deal was first announced. So it’s added to the uncertainty, because Musk [was] using his Tesla stock, in essence, to buy Twitter. So the game of high-stakes poker backfired for Musk. We believe he essentially got cold feet and looked for a way out of this deal. The bot issue, or fake accounts, has always been a black cloud over Twitter. They claim it’s less than 5 percent. Musk thinks it’s 20 percent-plus, and many believe it’s significantly more than 5 percent. That’s put the deal on hold, and ultimately, the Street is telling you, ’$54.20 is out the window.’ It’s either a renegotiated, lower price for Twitter in the $42 to $45 range, or Musk tries to pay the billion-dollar breakup fee and walk away.
And where do you see it going now?
We believe right now it’s 50-50 odds that he either walks away or renegotiates for a lower deal. Twitter’s board, in this circus-like atmosphere, their back is against the wall. Because they could fight Musk in court and try to adhere to the $54.20, but as a standalone company in the interim, Twitter stock probably would be sub-$30, as the Street anticipates a standalone Twitter rather than one that’s bought by Musk. Snap, Twitter’s main competitor, just announced potential disaster results.