Runoffs are not always hospitable to establishment-backed candidates who win round one but fall short of 50%. Brooks weathered losing former President Donald Trump’s endorsement in March, and he enters the runoff with some momentum. But Britt’s performance in the primary was so sweeping that Alabama GOP insiders are picking her to win the runoff and pick up the party’s Senate nomination without too much trouble.

“It’s pretty baked, in my opinion,” said a Republican operative with Alabama ties who had supported businessman and military veteran Mike Durant in the primary. Durant finished third, with 23.33%, behind Brooks, who garnered 29.15%.

What’s driving the confidence in Britt against a conservative stalwart like Brooks, who theoretically should do well in what is expected to be a low-turnout runoff that might see just 16% to 18% of eligible voters participate? To begin with, Britt won 62 of 67 counties in the primary. Plus, in three of the five counties Britt lost, she fell short by less than 100 votes.