“He is Trump without the boorish behavior and name calling, the insults and the bullying—the very reasons Trump lost suburban women in 2018 and lost a significant number of college-educated suburban men in 2020,” says Jim Dornan, a veteran GOP strategist who worked on Trump’s 2015 exploratory campaign committee and this year is advising Republican candidates in Oregon, Maryland and California. “On the Republican Party circuit, whether it’s in D.C .or the suburbs, DeSantis is the first name that comes up when people start talking about 2024.”

A lot can happen before 2024, of course, but many Republicans sense that DeSantis would prove the stronger candidate against Biden in a general election, partly because many Americans have yet to form a firm opinion of the governor. That presents an opportunity to grow his support in ways Trump cannot. “DeSantis has a better shot, in my opinion,” Dornan says. “Trump versus Biden would be a toss up—a total ‘hold your nose’ contest. DeSantis hasn’t pissed off as many people as Trump. He’s Trump without, mostly, the personality baggage.”

It’s a prospect that sends chills down the spines of Democrats, particularly those in Florida who are more familiar with DeSantis and his success in using the power of state government as a weapon in the country’s culture wars. “Florida is a Petri dish for what authoritarianism look like in America,” says Alex Berrios, co-founder of Mi Vecino, a progressive group working to register Hispanic voters in the state. “It’s not just our problem. DeSantis is going to be a national problem.”