The crowds are getting smaller at Trump’s trademark rallies. Trump’s endorsed candidates are often losing contests to other Republicans. When they do prevail, they often win with less than 33 percent of the vote.

Most importantly, polls are showing GOP voters are moving on from the former president. An NBC News poll conducted in October 2020 showed that a majority of GOP voters said they supported Trump first over the party. Its May poll shows the situation reversed, with 58 percent saying they back the party first.

That difference matters, as the April Echelon Insights Verified Voter Omnibus poll shows. Eighty-four percent of those who say they back Trump first want him to run again in 2024, compared with only 39 percent who back the party first. Seventy-four percent of Trump supporters say they would definitely or probably back Trump if he did run again, compared with only 26 percent of party-first Republicans. Indeed, 50 percent of party-first Republicans say they would vote for another Republican in the primaries against the former president. The more these voters move away from blind support of Trump, the more open they become to abandoning him altogether.