Democrats are still clinging to a few potential developments that they hope could turn things around: (1) an actual decision from the Supreme Court that makes the reality of state abortion bans more acutely felt; (2) passage of a new version of Build Back Better; (3) the upcoming Jan. 6 committee hearings that highlight the issue of Trump and the GOP’s efforts to overtun the 2020 elections; and, at least on the Senate side, (4) the emergence of unelectable Republican nominees in key states.

But history is not on Biden’s side. In fact, voters may have already made up their minds.

That, at least, is the argument from DOUG SOSNIK in his latest memo that we are happy to share first with the Playbook audience. You can read the full memo here

Doug looks at the Biden presidency so far and concludes that the midterms were essentially lost during the period from July to November last year. Nothing since then has changed Biden’s standing. And Doug thinks there’s only one thing that possibly could: “reframing the terms of debate for the midterm elections around the pending decision by the Supreme Court on Roe.”