While that assessment became generally accepted and often repeated, a lot has changed in the past 30 years. But one thing that hasn’t changed much is the Black vote. The last time the GOP exceeded that 20 percent threshold was in the 1960 presidential race, when Republican Richard Nixon received 32 percent of the Black vote versus Democrat John F. Kennedy’s 68 percent.

Since then, GOP presidential candidates have received a high of 15 percent of the Black vote (twice) and a low of 4 percent (in 2008 for Republican John McCain). Republican candidate Donald Trump received 8 percent in 2016 and 2020.

Similarly, Hispanic voters have long heavily favored the Democratic Party. But as many political analysts have recently noted, that may be changing. And that possibility raises the question: What threshold percentage of the Hispanic vote could effectively “establish GOP dominance in American politics — not only in presidential elections … but in congressional contests as well” (to use the PSQ’s wording)?

I suggest that it’s just over 30 percent.