Journalists in South Korea peering across the inter-Korean border with telescopes continue to see signs of normal agricultural activity in farms to the south, suggesting there may be a rural-urban divide in how lockdowns are being implemented. The explanation for this seems to be the inescapable reality of what a serious lockdown would mean: an assured and catastrophic famine. May, it just so happens, is the start of North Korea’s rice planting season, which runs through October. This five-month window may, in reality, be a two-month window, as May and June are generally the most favorable for maximizing rice production. Producing rice, as the national staple food, is essential for preventing colossal food shortages.

North Korea has already seen its food stocks run low amid unfavorable harvests during its 28 months of self-imposed isolation. Going all-in on a national lockdown may save lives from the “fever” that’s taken hold across the country, but it could come at the cost of lives lost later to starvation and malnutrition.

It’s unclear what steps the country’s leadership might take if the worst comes to pass and omicron/BA.2 prove impossible to contain. In an unusual public call to draw on China’s experiences, normally shunned by a regime that avoids acknowledging foreign influences, Rodong Sinmun reported that Kim told North Korean authorities to study the “policies, successes, and experiences” of China, among other countries, and to “actively follow” their approach. This could indicate a predisposition to favor a national-level lockdown to contain the pandemic, even if it does significantly increase the odds of mass starvation.