Russia’s military blunders will help the PLA hone its plans and improve its chances of conquering Taiwan. Russia has failed to achieve air superiority over Ukraine; keep its forces supplied with fuel, food, and munitions; and effectively conduct combined arms operations. The PLA’s leadership was likely shocked that Russia’s military, with extensive recent operational experience, failed to secure a decisive victory. For the PLA, this vindicates the difficult military reforms it began in 2015, which focused on joint operations and logistics and incorporate lessons learned from watching the United States conduct complex joint operations. At the same time, the PLA fields a significant amount of Russian military equipment and has sought to integrate elements of Russia’s military reforms and therefore Russia’s struggles could prompt the PLA to question its own readiness to conduct the operations necessary for a fight with Taiwan. This worry is likely compounded by the fact that the PLA assumes the United States would come to Taiwan’s defense and the United States has sold Taiwan many of the same weapons Ukraine is using to great effect. In the longer term, the PLA will likely redouble its focus on integrating its land, sea, and air power and improving its joint warfighting capabilities.

President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ability to rally the Ukrainian people and international public opinion has shown Chinese leaders the importance of eliminating Taiwan’s political and military leadership early in a conflict and breaking the Taiwanese people’s determination to resist. In practice, this would, at a minimum, entail attempting to assassinate Taiwanese leaders to demoralize the population, inhibit command and control, and prevent the emergence of a rallying figure. But China would likely pursue even more expansive operations ahead of any assault, including sowing divisions within Taiwanese society, spreading disinformation, and severing Taiwan’s communications with the outside world. China has already established essential platforms within Taiwan for spreading pro-China messages through investments in media outlets and recruitment of intelligence assets. It will surely continue to refine this non-kinetic element of warfare.