But even if Russia is able to find other suppliers for military components, as some expect, it is likely to face an increasingly steep economic cliff as the invasion of Ukraine continues. Speaking to reporters in Washington on Tuesday, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said Western sanctions would pose a “real challenge” to Russia’s ability to refurbish his “worn out” armed forces. And even though the Kremlin has managed to stabilize the ruble with energy exports, it is not likely to be able to stave off the financial pain for long.

“Russia is probably spending almost everything it’s earning on its energy exports to prop up the ruble and, you know, do all sorts of other B.S. to make it seem like the economy is okay when it’s not,” said Brian O’Toole, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council think tank and a former Treasury Department official.

“They’re making hard choices now,” he added. “It’s frustrating for folks not to see all of the results, but this is unsustainable for the Russians. At some point, they’re just going to fall off a cliff.”