If the debate is framed in terms of states’ rights, with Republicans championing the authority of states to regulate abortion—as opposed to the federal government—Cruz and other pro-lifers can hold their own. In most polls, American are closely divided on state vs. federal control of the issue. And in a YouGov survey taken after the news leaked about Roe’s demise, respondents slightly preferred state control to absolute federal control.

But if the alternative to state control is individual control, the individual wins.

In polls taken for Yahoo News in February and April, YouGov asked Americans whether abortion was “a constitutional right that women in all states should have some access to” or “something that individual states should be able to outlaw.” Twice as many registered voters chose the women’s rights message (58 percent in April) as the states’ rights message (28 percent in April).

In a survey taken by Data for Progress in late March and early April, 39 percent of likely voters supported the Court “overturning or weakening Roe v. Wade and allowing states to once again implement abortion bans.” That number looked formidable. But when the choice was reframed as between the state and the individual, the state lost. When likely voters were asked to choose between two statements, only 28 percent picked this one: “The government should be able to make decisions about reproductive rights, especially when it involves protecting the sanctity of human life.”