“Oz has closed the gap, and the parallels with J.D. Vance in Ohio are obvious,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “But McCormick and Barnette have considerable support, and with one out of five voters uncommitted, odds are that the vote will be very close.”

“Even though Oz got Trump’s endorsement, Barnette has more momentum,” says Anderson. “Her support doubled in two months, her supporters are the most interested, and her negatives are much lower than Oz or McCormick.”

Among the subgroup of voters who are extremely interested in the election, Barnette (25%) is narrowly preferred over Oz (22%) and McCormick (21%).

McCormick (+22 points) and Barnette (+29) have strong favorable ratings, with voters viewing both of them more positively than negatively by over 20 points. Conversely, the net difference between favorable and unfavorable views of Oz is negative by 1 point.