Unable to turn Ukraine into a NATO member, the U.S. turned it into a NATO outpost, delivering billions in military assistance, conducting joint military exercises, running clandestine paramilitary training programs, swapping intelligence, and even participating in cyber operations against the Russian government. The U.S. created the worst of all possible worlds for Ukraine – a provocative NATO proxy on Russia’s doorstep, but without NATO’s security umbrella.

Putin is culpable for his criminal attack on Ukraine. But the prospect of Ukraine in NATO heightened Moscow’s threat perception and made a geopolitical explosion more likely. That the U.S. refused to discuss the issue with Russia is especially mystifying given that Western leaders privately told Kyiv “you’re not going to be a NATO member.” A more rational diplomatic strategy would have been to advertise that NATO won’t bring Ukraine into the MAP unless and until Russia attacked.

We’ll never know whether serious diplomacy could have averted the war, but it may yet resolve the crisis. The Biden administration should work with European allies to broker a settlement that makes Ukraine a neutral state. Formal neutrality is far better than being a battleground of great powers — and cuts both ways. If Russia withdraws all military forces and stops interfering with its smaller neighbor, NATO’s door should stay closed to Ukraine.