On April 30, 2010, Obama’s Real Clear Politics job approval average was 48 percent approve to 46 percent disapprove, up by just 2 points. By the November election, Obama was down 11 points, 44 percent approve to 55 percent disapprove, according to the exit polls, and the House was in Republican hands.

On April 30, 2022, Biden’s job approval was already down 11 points, at 42 percent approve to 53 disapprove, in the Real Clear Politics average. Not a good sign.

A comparison of the generic vote for Congress in 2010 and 2022 doesn’t offer Democrats any better news. On April 30, 2010, Republicans enjoyed a 1-point advantage over Democrats in the RCP generic vote average, at 44 percent Republican to 43 percent Democrat.

To have Republicans ahead at all in the generic vote was unusual after losing badly both the 2006 and 2008 elections and should have raised flags for the Obama White House. In the end, the GOP won the congressional vote nationally by a 7-point margin, 52 percent Republican to 45 percent Democrat.