What makes this picture even gloomier for advocates of more political choices is the impact of polarization. Today, unlike in times past, the most reliable predictor of a presidential vote is the party of the voter. This may seem obvious, but it has only been recently true. In the tight election of 1976, 11 percent of Republicans voted for Jimmy Carter and 20 percent of Democrats voted for Gerald Ford. In 2020, 94 percent of Democrats voted for Biden; 94 percent of Republicans voted for Trump. In this climate — where large factions of party members regard the other party as not just wrong, but evil — the idea of a new entity drawing discontented voters from the center of both parties seems a heavy reach.

If you’re looking for possible good news about an alternative to the two parties, there are some structural reforms already in place that might help. The newer primary rules in states like California and Alaska, where the two or four survivors of a first-round primary advance to November regardless of party; the “ranked choice” voting system that makes a voter’s second choice potentially decisive — these may give life to an old hunger that has never been fully fed since John Charles Fremont ran for president in 1956 on the new Republican Party. But do not let the latest polls mislead you. The distance between the abstract appeal of a new voice and the reality of a viable new party or independent candidate is immense.