A declining gross domestic product can be a sign of a looming recession. But when it’s combined with already high inflation, something worse becomes possible: stagflation. This combination of economic contraction with inflation walloped the Americans economy through the 1970s and early 1980s and played a significant role in helping Ronald Reagan make Jimmy Carter a one-term president. It’s most likely happy memories of that seminal moment in the history of the Republican Party that made so many conservatives giddy.
They should be careful. For one thing, there are three components to stagflation: inflation, declining GDP, and high unemployment. The first is firmly in place, the second is now rearing its head, but the third is, so far at least, nowhere in sight. Unemployment at the moment is sitting at 3.6 percent, which is extraordinarily low by historic standards. It’s certainly possible that the number will rise — indeed, it almost certainly will if GDP continues to contract into the second quarter, let alone beyond that. But for now, the job market remains hot, which means that so far 2022 feels nothing like 1979.
But beyond the technical definition of stagflation, there’s the complicated way economic data interact with perceptions of reality on the part of ordinary Americans. In dancing a jig about President Biden’s misfortune, Republicans run the risk of misreading that interaction and looking like they’re actively cheering on further bad news.
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