The lack of an obvious challenger also suggests McCarthy will keep his job. It’s a political truism that you can’t beat someone with no one. House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (La.) will not risk his leadership position in a likely futile challenge against McCarthy. And the conference’s third-highest-ranking leader, Rep. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.), is viewed by many within the conference as too “liberal,” despite her full-throated defense of Trump during his two impeachments. Other Republicans with the requisite tenure and stature, such as Reps. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Wash.), Gary Palmer (Ala.) and Jim Jordan (Ohio), are either part of leadership or seen as too conservative. And there’s also no nationally prominent figure such as former House speaker Paul D. Ryan whom party leaders can elevate to the top job because of their widespread respect among all party factions.

Further revelations could conceivably change these dynamics. McCarthy would be endangered if Trump turned on him, but that seems unlikely unless other tapes contain much more damaging words. Trump knows most GOP members of Congress don’t think much of him, and he revels in his ability to cow them nonetheless. McCarthy’s indiscretions actually strengthen Trump’s hand, as they place McCarthy in the position of a supplicant begging for forgiveness. This is a dynamic that Trump loves; he will break with McCarthy only if he thinks he can topple McCarthy and replace him with someone even more in debt to him. That’s not likely to happen.