France and Germany could tear the EU apart

The far more significant point to be drawn from this year’s French presidential elections is the extent to which Emmanuel Macron – almost single-handedly – has broken France’s political mould and how far the change might still be evolving. Five years ago, his victory with his new grouping En Marche! was widely seen as a flash in the pan. It is still unclear how En Marche! – now a party, La République En Marche! – is any more than a vehicle for Macron’s own ambitions, but it has gifted him the centre ground of French politics, driving the opposition further to the left and the right, into territory that would be considered fringe or extreme in many other countries of Europe. The contrast with Germany could hardly be greater.

This could pose quite a big question. If French and German politics are moving in such different directions, how long can the current unity in the European Union hold? And this is not just about Ukraine. The trends that are taking France and Germany in essentially opposite directions relate not primarily to foreign policy, but to profound differences in domestic dynamics – differences that appear to be growing. These could soon start to pull apart the EU itself.