A drawn-out war in Ukraine would have profound consequences for the European continent. Europe would not be whole, free, and at peace. It would contain within itself a war zone charged with the threat of escalation. Russia’s armies are not in any condition to advance into Poland or the Baltic republics, but a jagged line of danger will run north to south, much less stable than the Iron Curtain of the Cold War era, demanding novel methods of defense by NATO. The exodus of Ukrainian refugees will continue, and with time migrants may decide to settle in Europe permanently.

A long-term war in Ukraine would also have consequences on a global scale. Were it to become entrenched, it would certainly exacerbate global hunger, given that Ukraine and Russia are major producers of foodstuffs such as wheat. Global hunger is a lever of global instability. In Africa and the Middle East, populations seemingly distant from Ukraine might find themselves in political crises generated by the knock-on effects of the war in Ukraine. This ugly reality will interrupt dreams of an elegant exit from the COVID-19 pandemic. Discrepancies in the international response to the conflict have already begun to emerge. Many countries see a double standard in the West’s enthusiastic reception of Ukrainian refugees and in the punishment of Russia for a war of choice when, as some observers have alleged, the United States has fought several such wars in recent years. Only 37 countries have levied sanctions on Russia, while 141 countries have condemned the invasion at the United Nations, a discrepancy that shows that not all members of the international community see eye to eye on the war in Ukraine.

As the war drags on and the record of Russian brutality grows, sanctions will pile up and prices for commodities such as oil will continue to rise.