The country has been inching closer after JPMorgan Chase & Co., under orders from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, halted interest payments the country owed on two dollar-denominated bonds in recent weeks. The move forced the Russian central bank to make the payments in rubles instead and left it scrambling for ways to sidestep JPMorgan and rival Citigroup Inc. to make good on its debt.

The situation got more serious on Wednesday: The Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee said the ruble payment was a potential default, fueling growing consensus that Russia may have reneged on its debt obligations. The CDDC’s ruling, which doesn’t directly impact the debt, could trigger payment of credit-default swaps if Russia doesn’t pay bondholders in dollars before the debt’s grace period ends on May 4. The nation could still avert a default if it pays bondholders in dollars before that period ends…

The country is exploring ways to reroute payments through domestic institutions as well as its own clearing agent. But it remains unclear if the efforts stand any chance of success and whether the moves would even help the country avoid default.