All this assumes, of course, that the Fed will stay the course and do what is necessary to slay the inflation dragon before it devours even more of our spending power than it already has.

Whether it does so, however, is an open question. No one today would describe Jerome Powell’s Fed as being dominated by monetary hawks. Even though Powell and others have signaled that they intend to move aggressively against inflation, we also hear some hemming and hawing from other Fed governors about how tough — or not — they are willing to be, and for how long. Given the central bank’s willingness over the past decade to subordinate price stability to the realization of other goals, we have good reason to be concerned about its fortitude.

This possibility should greatly concern us. Few things would be worse than a Fed starting a war against inflation, only to vacillate or back off before finishing the job. An inflation that is only half-defeated is likely to surge back, thereby making people wonder why they had to endure the pain that’s part and parcel of trying to crush inflation in the first place.