Experts say the logistics problems that plagued Russia outside Kyiv might not hamper the offensive in the Donbas as much. “They’re trying to learn from their mistakes,” the official said on a call Tuesday. “The supply lines will be of shorter length and easier for the Russians to manage.”

Still, there’s no guarantee Russia will win in the east, says Michael Kofman, the research program director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA, a Virginia-based national security research organization…

And Russian forces might not be able to prevail in a long and grueling fight—they’ve already lost a quarter of their soldiers, weapons, and military equipment sent to Ukraine, according to a Department of Defense analysis shared this week.

”Very likely the Russian military will be exhausted after this set of offensives,” Kofman said. “Even if they’re successful in Donbas, they’re not likely to have the military capacity to continue offensives in Ukraine.”