4. Trump and DeSantis are involved in a high-speed collision on I-95. Failing to reach amicable settlement, Trump and DeSantis resolve their issues James Dean–style, with a game of highway chicken.

Probability: 70–80 percent.

The passage of time does not work in Trump’s favor. DeSantis is running as DeSantis this time around and, in building a solid first-term record as governor of a premier state, he has built one of the better brands in the national GOP. He has presided over a booming economy, become the TV face of Fauci resistance, supported the uniforms, limited abortion, and become the GOP’s most visible and scrappy culture warrior. (In blocking race and gender theorizing from the classroom, and then somehow managing to get to the pro-family side of the Walt Disney Company, DeSantis has become for Florida parents a kind of Youngkin Squared.)

No political ointment comes without a single fly — the Democratic candidate will probably be the eminently likeable if chameleonic Charlie Crist rather than the obscure if memorably whiney Nikki Fried — but DeSantis is at this point the clear favorite for November. If he wins, and wins big, he becomes his own man. Conceivably, he becomes as big as Trump — and he’ll still be 32 years younger.