That frustration also bled into a broader critique of the Iowa caucuses that had been brewing for years. The year 2020 saw a new surge in criticism from some Democrats that the racial demographics of Iowa — a state which is 85 percent non-Hispanic white — were not representative of the Democratic Party, and made the state ill-suited for kicking off the party’s primaries. Additionally, the already-controversial caucus system came under great scrutiny. Caucuses entail meetings and discussions between voters that can take several hours, and typically require a much greater time commitments than voting in a primary. The issue, critics say, is that voters who don’t have that kind of time to spare are excluded from the process. Finally, political scientists point out that Iowa seems to have tilted from a purple state to a red one, stripping the state of its value proposition as a solid testing ground for the general election…

In light of this reality, the early states should be chosen very carefully by the party. (In my opinion, they should all take place at once in a national vote instead of through a staggered schedule so that every voter gets equal say, but unfortunately that seems like a remote possibility for the time being.) In 2020, the first four early states were, in order, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Josh Putnam, an expert on the rules of presidential primaries who runs the political consulting firm FHQ Strategists, told me that Nevada might be well-positioned to become number one, given its diversity and status as a battleground state. He also predicted that Iowa’s ability to cling to its place among the pack of early states will depend in part on what kind of case it makes for itself to the party. (There are questions over whether it will pivot from caucus-style contests to primaries to be more inclusive.) Currently New Jersey, Michigan and Nebraska Democrats are pitching themselves to join the leading batch of states.