Optimists — including the Biden administration — argue that the current supply-demand imbalance can be addressed on the supply side of the equation. That is fantasy. Intel has, happily, announced plans for a new semiconductor plant in Ohio, but that facility won’t be operational until 2025. Nor will attacking oligopolistic practices in the meatpacking industry or the escalating cost of hearing aids have any measurable effect on overall prices.

Then there’s the other important supply input: labor. Bringing more Americans into the labor force could moderate the pace of wage increases but not nearly quickly enough or on the order of magnitude needed to ease the current worker shortage.

What can policymakers do to avert a recession? At this point, regrettably little. The best approach would be to begin tightening before expectations for future inflation become embedded. Among the most compelling lessons of the double-digit inflation of the late 1970s is that it is far more difficult to unwind an inflation problem than to forestall it.