Third, the war crimes show that, as long as Russia occupies Ukrainian territory, an end to fighting does not mean an end to violence. On the contrary: a ceasefire would allow Russian forces not only to regroup and rearm, but to brutalize and murder civilians unhindered. As the “Realist School” of international relations does not appear to recognize, not just geopolitical space but human lives are at stake. All Ukrainians now know for certain what awaits them if Russian forces enter their town or village, and will resist accordingly. It follows that partition or negotiated compromise will bring neither peace nor stability.
Even more than Russia’s invasion, its war crimes mark a fateful moment that fixes perceptions and clarifies choices. The prospect of even a temporary halt to the war, already slim, is now remote. Russia is in many ways more isolated than it was in the Cold War, and the West is now less minded than ever to say “our quarrel is with the government not its people.” Further sanctions will follow. If Congress amplifies White House executive orders with legislation, these could last for years. Unless major Western states elect leaders with very different political priorities, it seems virtually unthinkable that sanctions will be eased while Russia occupies Ukrainian territory and Putin remains in power. By hardening public opinion in Finland and Sweden, Russia’s war crimes are also accelerating these countries’ moves towards NATO membership.
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