Second, perhaps Trump never intended to run, and he will use his health to justify having strung out speculation about his political return for so long. I, along with presumably millions of other people, recently received an email from Trump on behalf of Save America, an entity that raises funds on behalf of his Save America and Make America Great Again political action committees, celebrating his alleged hole-in-one while he was playing against “some of the greatest golfers in our country.” His supporters were invited to help celebrate his achievement by donating a minimum of $75 to his political organization in exchange for a signed picture of him on the green…

A final possibility is that Trump is sending out a trial balloon. Dangling that potential health issues might prevent him from running reminds me of a famous quote from Chinese war philosopher Sun Tzu: “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.” Suggesting that health issues may prevent him from running might be an effort to see how other Republicans react. Do GOP heirs-apparent such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis pounce on what might be construed as Trump’s weakness to gain an advantage ahead of 2024, or do they rally behind the former president in a show of continued loyalty? Trump’s ego will make it very difficult for him to step aside and hand over the reins of the GOP to a new jockey; if anything, he will want to be seen as a kingmaker and will carefully evaluate potential successors to the MAGA movement, demanding complete loyalty. Dropping hints about health issues may be part of that vetting process to see whom he will be able to control once he steps aside.