One immediate target that the Kremlin could try to spin as a victory would be seizing full control of the besieged city of Mariupol on the southern coast, said the European official, who added that roughly one-third of the city remained under Ukrainian control. The city, which prior to the war had a population of almost half a million, has defied expectations, holding out for several weeks despite intense Russian bombardment.

Russia’s self-imposed May deadline could also backfire, forcing it to send in big numbers of troops before they’re ready in pursuit of a hasty victory.

“Now it’s very clearly very much on Russia’s mind,” a Western diplomat said. With so many Russian troops being sent into the war, the diplomat questioned who would be left to participate in the annual military parade. “Where are their troops coming from that would normally parade because they’re sending so many of them? It feels like they’re left with a few students—some 17-year-olds—[to put] on parade.”