The upcoming midterm elections look dismal for Democrats. That’s not very unusual for the party holding the White House. But what about in 2024? If Trump runs for president again, Biden will be set up for a replay of his negative message from 2020. Will it work a second time? So far, the polls aren’t very encouraging.

But even more distressing is the prospect of Trump deciding against a run, allowing a less instantaneously toxic alternative — like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — to grab the Republican nomination. Biden could attempt a campaign organized around a not DeSantis message, but that would be incredibly risky because it could leave him sounding reactive and devoid of a positive vision for the future of the country. Vote for me and my party because we’re not Republicans can work as long as the Republican message and candidate is sufficiently repulsive or scary. But when that ceases to be the case — or after four years of a presidency that lacked much of a positive message — it could very well end up sounding vacuous and adrift, tempting voters to give the other side a shot.

I certainly recognize the challenge. Biden leads a party internally divided. Any move toward the progressive left risks alienating and antagonizing moderates, and the same holds for the reverse. That can make the prospect of holding everyone together against a common threat maximally appealing. But it’s a short-term solution the efficacy of which is likely to decline over time.