Le Pen is reaping the fruits of an effective campaign. Well before the Ukraine war sent energy prices through the roof, she decided to focus on the working class’s shrinking purchasing power, rather than only sticking to her flagship issue of immigration. Today, polls consistently show the rising cost of living at the top of French voters’ priorities, and in a recent survey a very narrow plurality of respondents said Le Pen would tackle the problem better than Macron.

“She is playing up her image of proximity [to the common man], of normality,” said Jean-Yves Camus, a senior fellow at the U.K.-based Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right. Macron, by contrast, still appears to many as “distant, even contemptuous, someone who embodies the technocratic, financial, and social elites,” he added. While slightly higher than a year ago, Macron’s approval rating is currently below 45 percent.

Meanwhile, Le Pen’s long-standing efforts to “de-demonize” the National Rally have been helped by the appearance of another, even more radical far-right candidate, former TV pundit Éric Zemmour. After threatening Le Pen’s presidential ambitions with a surge of his own last fall, Zemmour has now lost steam, but his hard-line, often xenophobic views on immigration indirectly contribute to making Le Pen seem more palatable to moderates.