It’s not that sanctions are having no effect on Putin’s economy. “Russian sanctions are having a dramatic impact on the Russian economy. We’re going to have most likely the most severe crisis Russia has had in recent history,” says Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist at the Washington, D.C.–based Institute of International Finance. The country’s central bank has been frozen out of its own foreign accounts, choking it off from hundreds of billions’ worth of dollars and euros. Its largest banks have been kicked off SWIFT, the financial messaging system — limiting the country’s ability to perform basic financial functions. According to Moody’s, more than 400 international companies have left Russia — including McDonald’s, Starbucks, and even a reluctant Goldman Sachs — which has led to “mass layoffs that will dent incomes.” Ribakova notes that many Russians are trying to leave the country, and the brain drain to other countries in Europe and Southeast Asia could have a generations-long drag on the country’s economy. And of course, there’s a global hunt for every yacht and luxury apartment owned by Russian oligarchs, as well as a host of other trade and travel bans.

But the impression that the sanctions had isolated Putin’s economy from the world’s markets is hardly the case. “Russia has not been shut out of the financial system,” says Adam M. Smith, a partner at Gibson Dunn who, as a former senior adviser at the U.S. Treasury, helped craft sanctions against Russia in 2014. While much of the world’s consumer countries have banded together against Russia, many of the world’s largest economies — including China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia — have been more accommodating, either seeking out business with the country or refusing to join in on sanctions. “There are more than 250 banks in Russia; the vast majority of them haven’t been sanctioned. So there’s certainly a way to engage in international commerce without using the big banks, without using SWIFT. I think that’s what the Russians are going to do,” Smith adds.